Tariff Turbulence Clouds ASML’s Future Despite AI Boom and Strong 2025 Outlook
ASML, the leading global provider of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, has warned that recent tariff developments are clouding its longer-term projections for 2025 and 2026.
Still, the company reaffirmed its financial guidance for the current year, citing the continued momentum in artificial intelligence (AI) as a major driving force.
CEO Christophe Fouquet noted that customer discussions validate ASML’s expectations of growth over the next two years.
“However, the recent tariff announcements have increased uncertainty in the macro environment,” Fouquet acknowledged in a company statement.
In a company interview, CFO Roger Dassen outlined four key areas where tariffs could have a disruptive effect.
These include U.S.-bound shipments, duties on parts and equipment imported into the country, critical materials needed for production at U.S. facilities, and potential retaliatory tariffs from other countries targeting American exports.
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Dassen also pointed to broader concerns, stating, “We’re very actively working with the entire ecosystem to try and minimize the overall impact on the whole ecosystem as a result of that.” He warned of the yet-unknown indirect effects tariffs could have on global economic performance.
According to a Reuters report, industry analysts estimate that tariffs could cost U.S. chipmaking equipment producers over $1 billion annually. Despite these pressures, investors were somewhat relieved.
“It’s great news that 2025 financial guidance remains unchanged — or even worse than some were fearing, that perhaps guidance would be eliminated entirely,” said Nick Rossolillo of Concinnus Financial, a firm that has held ASML stock since 2022.
ASML continues to play a central role in the AI boom, producing the high-NA EUV lithography machines that help manufacture cutting-edge chips for clients like Nvidia and Apple.
Fouquet emphasized that AI is “the main growth driver” and noted, “It has created a shift in the market dynamics that benefits some customers more than others, contributing to both upside potential and downside risks as reflected in our 2025 revenue range.”
Analyst Timm Schulze-Melander of Redburn Atlantic pointed out that TSMC and Nvidia appear to be gaining more from the AI wave than competitors such as Intel or Samsung.
Meanwhile, investor Han Dieperink of Auréus praised the growing role of EUV technology in ASML’s system sales and the delivery of its fifth high-NA unit.
Nonetheless, the firm’s Q1 net bookings came in below forecasts at €3.9 billion ($4.4 billion). For Q2, ASML expects sales between €7.2 billion and €7.7 billion — slightly under analysts’ consensus of €7.73 billion, per LSEG data.
Shares dropped 7% in early trading and may see their steepest daily decline since January if losses persist.
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