Multi-billion dollar partnerships between artificial intelligence companies and chip manufacturers are projected to enhance the earnings outlook for semiconductor equipment giant ASML ahead of its third-quarter report on Wednesday.
Market observers anticipate signs that ASML’s major clients—such as TSMC and SK Hynix —are ramping up investment plans for 2026 and beyond.
Confidence has soared, reflected in ASML’s 32% stock surge since early September, significantly outpacing the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which gained 15% over the same period.
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AI-Driven Datacenter Expansion Energizes the Chip Sector
Back in July, ASML executives expressed uncertainty about achieving revenue growth in 2026, citing sluggish demand from Samsung and Intel. However, the landscape has shifted dramatically.
A wave of high-value AI deals has reignited optimism across the chip industry, fueled by expectations of massive investments in datacenters to support AI infrastructure.
Analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha predict new equipment bookings—a key performance indicator for ASML—will reach 5.36 billion euros ($6.21 billion) for the third quarter, following 9.48 billion euros recorded in the first half of the year.
Data from LSEG IBES suggests net income is likely to rise 1.4% year-over-year to 2.11 billion euros.
Recent announcements from Meta , Oracle, and others unveiling collaborations with chipmakers such as NVIDIA , AMD, Intel, and Samsung have further strengthened expectations for rising demand for ASML’s cutting-edge lithography tools—vital components for manufacturing advanced chips.
“It’s clear that the sentiment has changed, management will need to give some indication of what they are seeing in the market,” said Morningstar analyst Javier Correonero.
Balancing Speed, Cost, and Capacity in Chip Manufacturing
Despite rising optimism, analysts caution that constructing semiconductor plants remains a lengthy process. They are eager for ASML to clarify whether clients can accelerate timelines to meet the AI-driven demand surge.
“Every memory chipmaker is likely to increase production capacity for AI – Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung, even Chinese players,” said Degroof Petercam analyst Michael Roeg.
ASML’s advanced tools—each costing around $300 million—are among the most expensive and complex machines in the chipmaking world, typically requiring 8 to 12 months for delivery.
This forces chipmakers to weigh the risks of ordering too early against potential delays in production.
During the pandemic, ASML’s backlog swelled as demand outpaced supply. The company has since expanded its capacity to prevent similar bottlenecks.
Analysts now expect TSMC, which fabricates nearly all high-end AI chips, to significantly boost its orders, while Intel’s business outlook is also showing signs of recovery.
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